It futurist works as future shock, powershift, and the

It must be nice to be on congress must read list.
Alvin and Heidi Toffler found themselves there after long time friend newt
gingrich become speaker of the house. Previously known for such futurist works
as future shock, powershift, and the third wave, the tofflers, latest
disquisition provides a bold revolutionary tract. Whether or not readers accept
the tofffler, vision of future, creating a new civilization deserves
examination, if for no other reason than to know what congress is using as mind
fodder these days.

In creating a new civilization, the Toffler describe
an inevitable new world order and how to survive and even profit from its
arrival. The Toffler assert that history is trisected into three potentially
clashing civilization emerged around, 8000 b.c as a result of the agricultural
revolution. Second wave civilization arose with the industrial revolution and
introduces mass production consumption education media corporation political
parties and a new family structure. A third wave is now arriving, bearing a
civilization of information those conflicts with its predecessors.

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The central resource buoying the third wave is not
land, labor, or capital but knowledge which the Toffler suggest include
everything from data, inferences, and assumptions to values imagination and
institution. Third wave nation creative and exploit this knowledge by marketing
information innovation management culture advanced technology software
education training medical care and financial services to the world. De manufacturing
mass education and mass media will no longer exist (p.31). Short runs of
customized product smaller labor unions collapsing industrial giants and
weakening TV networks will replace these mass structure. The tofflers view this
transaction as manifesting itself in computer driven manufacturing technologies
that allow cheap customization and product diversity thus reducing economies of
scale. Computers allow miniaturization which decrease warehousing and
transportation costs as well as just in time delivery programs that slash the
cost of waiting inventory.

Although the transaction from second wave brute
force economies to third wave brain force economies began in the 1950s and
accelerated in the early 1970s, the transformation remain far from complete
meanwhile the upheaval caused by the transaction has had and will continue to
profound effects on family life education employment and politics.
Reorganization the inevitability of the third wave will allow competitive race
will be won by least amount of domestic dislocation and unrest.

Due to the rise in mind work and the accompanying
decline in manual jobs workers in the third wave economy will become less
interchangeable. As a result manual worker should prepare themselves for jobs
in the human services personal security training services leisure and
recreation service and tourism. The Toffler suggest raising the traditionally
low wages for service sector jobs by increasing productivity and inventing new
forms of work force organization and collection 
bargaining that are more supportive of work at home programs flex time
and sharing time.

In addressing the political impact of the third wave
the tofflers point out that the second wave third wave schism generated two biases
political camps. Those supporting second wave civilization are tenaciously
dedicated to preserving the core institution of industrial mass society the
nuclear family the mass education system the Gaint Corporation the mass trade
union the centralized nation state and the politics of pseudoreprentative
government. Second wave elites as well as middle class and poor Americans
resist the third wave because they fear being displaced by the new order. Yet
third wave proponents recognize that today most urgent problems from energy war
and poverty to ecological degradation and breakdown of familial relationship
can no longer be solved within the framework of an industrial civilization.

Further while the Toffler advocate the revamping of
factory based modal of education as essential to the third wave transaction
they do not offer firm blueprints for reform. These specifics are critical
indispensable resource of the third wave thereby thwarting the great democratic
leap forward that the Toffler envision.

Despite the seductive power of the Toffler
revolutionary vision their rhetoric should be evaluated cautiously. The
tofflers predictions may be entirely correct but their conclusions may also be
ill founded . the Toffler exhort if we begin now we and our obsolete political
structure but of civilization itself. Like the generation of the revolutionary
dead we have a destiny to create. Preparing for whatever future awaits is wise
but abandoning an established functioning system too soon may be imprudent and
costly. It should give readers pause to recall that the heralds of this new
knowledge  and intellect will allow them
to flourish in the society they promote. Perhaps it would be preferable to slow
the rush into the third wave progressing more by natural momentum and less by
progagandist catapult. The turmoil of the inevitable transition cannot be worse
than the shock of prematurely entering an environment without being fully
prepared. To the extent that the Toffler reassure their reader that the third
wave signals a positive shift toward a desired destination they are to be
commended.

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